First, forwards who have played at least 100 minutes minutes overall at even strength. This excludes 7 players (McLaren, D'Amigo, Bodie, Leivo, Broll, Devane and Abbott):
F/20, A/20 and N/20 are the even strength chance rates per 20 minutes ice time.
| Overall | ESF | ESA | ESD | ES% | ESTOI | AvESTOI | F/20 | A/20 | N/20 |
| Kadri | 176 | 187 | -11 | 48.5% | 556:49 | 15:02 | 6.3 | 6.7 | -0.4 |
| Kessel | 217 | 248 | -31 | 46.7% | 696:01 | 16:58 | 6.2 | 7.1 | -0.9 |
| Bolland | 41 | 47 | -6 | 46.6% | 202:59 | 13:31 | 4.0 | 4.6 | -0.6 |
| Kulemin | 86 | 99 | -13 | 46.5% | 377:07 | 13:00 | 4.6 | 5.3 | -0.7 |
| Van Riemsdyk | 193 | 224 | -31 | 46.3% | 628:29 | 16:06 | 6.1 | 7.1 | -1.0 |
| Clarkson | 101 | 122 | -21 | 45.3% | 447:03 | 15:24 | 4.5 | 5.5 | -0.9 |
| McClement | 101 | 125 | -24 | 44.7% | 515:53 | 12:53 | 3.9 | 4.8 | -0.9 |
| Ashton | 23 | 29 | -6 | 44.2% | 128:51 | 07:09 | 3.6 | 4.5 | -0.9 |
| Smith | 50 | 65 | -15 | 43.5% | 251:11 | 10:02 | 4.0 | 5.2 | -1.2 |
| Bozak | 74 | 99 | -25 | 42.8% | 278:42 | 16:23 | 5.3 | 7.1 | -1.8 |
| Raymond | 148 | 199 | -51 | 42.7% | 600:00 | 14:38 | 4.9 | 6.6 | -1.7 |
| Lupul | 114 | 161 | -47 | 41.5% | 494:05 | 15:26 | 4.6 | 6.5 | -1.9 |
| Holland | 69 | 98 | -29 | 41.3% | 241:03 | 12:41 | 5.7 | 8.1 | -2.4 |
| Orr | 20 | 30 | -10 | 40.0% | 174:52 | 06:01 | 2.3 | 3.4 | -1.1 |
| Smithson | 8 | 26 | -18 | 23.5% | 119:10 | 07:00 | 1.3 | 4.4 | -3.0 |
It's interesting to see Nazem Kadri getting called out by Randy Carlyle, and to see his name in trade rumours. By this scoring chance metric, Kadri has been the Leafs' best 5-on-5 forward. He's the best 5-on-5 forward in Corsi as well, but the points haven't been there quite as much as the likes of Kessel and Van Riemsdyk.
Speaking of Kessel, he is behind Kadri in second place for %, and just behind Kadri in terms of generating chances as well. A surprise third is Nikolai Kulemin, who recovered from a miserable start to the season, after his early injury, and has been excellent lately. I was surprised to see that Kulemin actually has a better ESP/60 minutes than JVR, despite getting harder assignments and much worse linemates. Jay McClement, at one point also very poor, has improved, to the point where he's now ahead of the likes of Bozak and Holland.
Peter Holland has gotten a lot of points, but this has come despite some very poor chance percentages. There's a simple explanation for this, as he's easily been the worst defensive forward on the team. The big disappointment has been Joffrey Lupul, who has not generated much offense, and had a tough time at the other end as well.
Jerred Smithson's abysmal numbers are stunning, though he is hampered by getting a lot of defensive zone starts, it's not by enough relative to the likes of McClement to justify him playing. He doesn't look like an NHL player, and if another centre injury crops up, the Leafs should trawl the waiver wire or look at some move for just about anyone else.
In terms of rates, the best at producing chances per 20 have been the main three, Kadri, Kessel and JVR. The only player close is Holland, while Bozak is the only other player generating more than 5/20. The worst at generating chances was Smithson, who managed to generate even less than Colton Orr.
Peter Holland's 8 chances against per 20 minutes is a full chance per period worse than the next closest player, with the line of Bozak, JVR and Kessel all even at just over 7/20. Orr, Smithson and Ashton, for the most part spending time on low-event lines, were the best in terms of preventing chances, while of the more regular players Bolland and McClement were the best.
I also put together some data on forward lines:
These have some pretty small sample sizes, but here's every line on for at least 20 total chances (unfortunately, I don't have icetime for these line combos).
| Line | For | Against | Diff | % |
| Kadri-Kessel-Van Riemsdyk | 81 | 69 | 12 | 54.0% |
| Bozak-Kessel-Van Riemsdyk | 63 | 61 | 2 | 50.8% |
| Holland-Lupul-Raymond | 22 | 33 | -11 | 40.0% |
| Smith-Clarkson-Raymond | 18 | 24 | -6 | 42.9% |
| Holland-Kessel-Van Riemsdyk | 16 | 26 | -10 | 38.1% |
| Kadri-Clarkson-Raymond | 20 | 22 | -2 | 47.6% |
| Smith-Lupul-Clarkson | 14 | 15 | -1 | 48.3% |
| McClement-Clarkson-Kulemin | 17 | 11 | 6 | 60.7% |
| Kadri-Lupul-Clarkson | 9 | 12 | -3 | 42.9% |
| Kadri-Lupul-Broll | 7 | 13 | -6 | 35.0% |
| McClement-D'Amigo-Kulemin | 14 | 6 | 8 | 70.0% |
| Kadri-Lupul-Raymond | 10 | 10 | 0 | 50.0% |
Kadri didn't get the points with Kessel and JVR that Bozak did, but he's been better in generating chances. No surprise to see that McClement, Clarkson and Kulemin, which has been excellent, is on that list. Holland has done poorly with both of the top line combinations.
Next, the defense:
| Overall | Pos | ESF | ESA | ESD | ES% | ESTOI | AvESTOI | F/20 | A/20 | N/20 |
| Gunnarsson | D | 175 | 185 | -10 | 48.6% | 673:01 | 16:24 | 5.2 | 5.5 | -0.3 |
| Phaneuf | D | 168 | 199 | -31 | 45.8% | 681:32 | 17:28 | 4.9 | 5.8 | -0.9 |
| Ranger | D | 124 | 154 | -30 | 44.6% | 543:48 | 16:28 | 4.6 | 5.7 | -1.1 |
| Rielly | D | 129 | 162 | -33 | 44.3% | 515:03 | 16:05 | 5.0 | 6.3 | -1.3 |
| Liles | D | 28 | 36 | -8 | 43.8% | 96:40 | 16:06 | 5.8 | 7.4 | -1.7 |
| Fraser | D | 55 | 72 | -17 | 43.3% | 230:25 | 12:48 | 4.8 | 6.2 | -1.5 |
| Gardiner | D | 181 | 243 | -62 | 42.7% | 747:59 | 18:41 | 4.8 | 6.5 | -1.7 |
| Franson | D | 151 | 210 | -59 | 41.8% | 638:50 | 16:22 | 4.7 | 6.6 | -1.8 |
Carl Gunnarsson has pulled away as the top defenseman, clear of his partner Phaneuf. The two have some of the worst Corsi ratings on the team, but posted high PDO, which could suggest that they may regress. However, the fact that they also have better chance %s than corsi suggests that they may actually be effective at limiting the quality of shots against, which could mitigate a potential regression in goaltending performance. Of course, I don't have any data to support that theory, it could be that their chance ratings are a house of cards as well, and that when they come back the Leafs could be in rough shape.
Cody Franson continued to struggle, putting up the worst percentage. Jake Gardiner, who leads the team in ES icetime, hasn't really done much with that, also very low. Liles generated a good number of chances, but was vulnerable defensively, while Ranger has had some big errors (though not so many recently), but hasn't been bad overall.
| Pairing | For | Against | Diff | % |
| Phaneuf-Gunnarsson | 118 | 134 | -16 | 46.8% |
| Franson-Gardiner | 75 | 93 | -18 | 44.6% |
| Ranger-Gardiner | 49 | 57 | -8 | 46.2% |
| Franson-Rielly | 36 | 56 | -20 | 39.1% |
| Fraser-Ranger | 22 | 34 | -12 | 39.3% |
| Rielly-Gardiner | 27 | 22 | 5 | 55.1% |
| Ranger-Rielly | 29 | 26 | 3 | 52.7% |
| Fraser-Rielly | 11 | 17 | -6 | 39.3% |
| Franson-Gunnarsson | 16 | 10 | 6 | 61.5% |
| Gunnarsson-Gardiner | 14 | 13 | 1 | 51.9% |
| Phaneuf-Gardiner | 11 | 22 | -11 | 33.3% |
| Liles-Rielly | 9 | 19 | -10 | 32.1% |
Gardiner and Franson's numbers don't look as bad here, which is a bit of a statistical oddity; they've done poor at non 5-on-5 ES, and a relatively small number of those chances changes the numbers a little against their favour. Still, the Rielly-Gardiner partnership is looking solid; while Franson-Rielly and Fraser-Ranger were really poor. I'd be interested to see if Rielly and Gardiner can be effective playing together, and to get Franson going more whether he should be given time with Gunnarsson, plugging some one else into a spot alongside Phaneuf.
Next, the powerplay. Here's every player with at least 30 minutes in PP time.
PP/2 indicates the number of net chances a player is on for per 2 minutes of power play time.
| Overall | Pos | PPF | PPA | PPD | PP% | PPTOI | AvPPTOI | PP/2 |
| Phaneuf | D | 94 | 11 | 83 | 89.5% | 139:17 | 03:34 | 1.19 |
| Kessel | F | 95 | 10 | 85 | 90.5% | 136:59 | 03:20 | 1.24 |
| Van Riemsdyk | F | 92 | 8 | 84 | 92.0% | 132:23 | 03:23 | 1.27 |
| Franson | D | 83 | 10 | 73 | 89.2% | 125:27 | 03:13 | 1.16 |
| Kadri | F | 54 | 6 | 48 | 90.0% | 93:03 | 02:30 | 1.03 |
| Lupul | F | 68 | 6 | 62 | 91.9% | 91:51 | 02:52 | 1.35 |
| Gardiner | D | 56 | 5 | 51 | 91.8% | 89:03 | 02:13 | 1.15 |
| Raymond | F | 44 | 6 | 38 | 88.0% | 80:14 | 01:57 | 0.95 |
| Rielly | D | 28 | 3 | 25 | 90.3% | 56:14 | 01:45 | 0.89 |
| Clarkson | F | 25 | 5 | 20 | 83.3% | 48:36 | 01:40 | 0.82 |
| Bozak | F | 28 | 4 | 24 | 87.5% | 45:51 | 02:41 | 1.05 |
The Leafs have been decent on the powerplay, with Kessel, JVR and Lupul being the most effective. Kadri has lagged behind the top line, but he hasn't been much different than Bozak. The second unit, getting relatively little time, has clearly lower numbers, with Clarkson being the least productive powerplay player.
Shorthanded next. Players with at least 30 SH minutes. Again, SH/2 is equivalent to PP/2, net chances per 2 minutes shorthanded.
| Overall | Pos | SHF | SHA | SHD | SH% | SHTOI | AvSHTOI | SH/2 |
| McClement | F | 4 | 113 | -109 | 3.4% | 145:31 | 03:38 | -1.50 |
| Gunnarsson | D | 2 | 103 | -101 | 1.9% | 132:44 | 03:14 | -1.52 |
| Phaneuf | D | 3 | 105 | -102 | 2.8% | 130:28 | 03:20 | -1.56 |
| Kulemin | F | 0 | 55 | -55 | 0.0% | 78:23 | 02:42 | -1.40 |
| Franson | D | 4 | 44 | -40 | 8.3% | 70:37 | 01:48 | -1.13 |
| Ranger | D | 4 | 37 | -33 | 9.8% | 67:27 | 02:02 | -0.98 |
| Van Riemsdyk | F | 4 | 44 | -40 | 8.3% | 64:41 | 01:39 | -1.24 |
| Raymond | F | 3 | 33 | -30 | 8.3% | 56:21 | 01:22 | -1.06 |
| Fraser | D | 2 | 30 | -28 | 6.3% | 43:54 | 02:26 | -1.28 |
| Smithson | F | 0 | 21 | -21 | 0.0% | 31:14 | 01:50 | -1.34 |
The Leafs' penalty killing has struggled, with McClement, Gunnarsson and Phaneuf posting some poor numbers (though again, I think this is stronlgy due to the amount of time they spend out there and how much of #1 untis they see). Raymond and Ranger have been the most effective penalty killers, it might be worthwhile to give them more time in an effort to get the PK% out of the bottom five.
Finally, the goaltenders.
| Overall | Pos | # | F | A | D | % | TOI | ESF | ESA | ESD | ES% | ESTOI | F/20 | A/20 | N/20 |
| Bernier | G | 28 | 428 | 507 | -79 | 45.8% | 1585:46 | 337 | 396 | -59 | 46.0% | 1293:18 | 5.2 | 6.1 | -0.9 |
| Reimer | G | 18 | 221 | 307 | -86 | 41.9% | 910:48 | 166 | 233 | -67 | 41.6% | 748:02 | 4.4 | 6.2 | -1.8 |
| Overall | Pos | # | PPF | PPA | PPD | PP% | PPTOI | SHF | SHA | SHD | SH% | SHTOI | AVTOI | PP/2 | SH/2 |
| Bernier | G | 28 | 87 | 10 | 77 | 89.7% | 144:23 | 4 | 101 | -97 | 3.8% | 148:05 | 56:38 | 1.07 | -1.31 |
| Reimer | G | 18 | 51 | 7 | 44 | 87.9% | 73:39 | 4 | 67 | -63 | 5.6% | 88:30 | 50:36 | 1.19 | -1.42 |
There's a pretty clear gap between the two goalies now, with the team playing poorly in front of Bernier, but terribly in front of Reimer.
CA: Chances against
CGA: Chance goals against
NCGA: Nonchance goals against
CSV%: Chance "save" percentage
| Overall | Pos | # | CA | CGA | GA | NCGA | CSV% | ESCA | ESCGA | ESGA | ESNCGA | ESCSV% |
| Bernier | G | 28 | 507 | 51 | 64 | 13 | 0.899 | 396 | 36 | 42 | 6 | 0.909 |
| Reimer | G | 18 | 307 | 39 | 43 | 4 | 0.873 | 233 | 27 | 31 | 4 | 0.884 |
| Overall | Pos | # | PPCA | PPCGA | PPGA | PPNCGA | PPCSV% | SHCA | SHCGA | SHGA | SHNCGA | SHCSV% |
| Bernier | G | 28 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.800 | 101 | 13 | 20 | 7 | 0.871 |
| Reimer | G | 18 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | 67 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0.821 |
This is my attempt to assess the quality of the goaltenders, by determining what percentage of chances they save; Reimer has clearly taken a dive at both even strength and shorthanded in the second quarter of the season, with Bernier establishing himself as the lead goalie. That high number of non-chance goals against on the powerplay for Bernier is a little odd, it could be something odd going on in my database.
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