Tuesday, December 31, 2013

Game 41 - Leafs 5, Carolina 2 - Toronto take advantage of some breaks to earn regulation win

In the last game before the halfway point, the Leafs managed to get some actual luck going their way, getting badly out-shot and out-chanced, but managing a rare regulation win, their first since beating Chicago a couple of weeks ago.

Phil Kessel gave the Leafs the lead on a bad goal late in the first, after Toronto had been clearly outchanced in the period. Carolina got level early in the second, as they dominated in the opening part of the period, outchancing Toronto 8-1 in the first thirteen minutes. Things then swung against the 'Canes, Kessel getting a second on a deflected pass, and Kulemin firing home the third goal. A Carolina response late in the second left them chasing a one-goal deficit in the third period.

A Paul Ranger goal midway through the period left Carolina to overhaul a two goal advantage, and while they generated a number of chances, they couldn't get it. Toronto were able to hold the Hurricanes chanceless in the last five minutes, and an empty net goal salted the game away.

One of the Leafs worst games in terms of chances, but getting those lucky breaks to take the lead meant that Carolina was chasing for much of it. Managing to keep the second period even on the scoreboard, despite how badly they were outchanced, was a key to their victory.

A summary of the scoring chances:

Status Overall ES
Team Toronto Carolina Toronto Carolina
1 5 7 3 7
2 6 11 4 11
3 4 7 4 7
4 0 0 0 0
Total 15 25 11 25

Details below.

Sunday, December 29, 2013

Game 40 - Leafs 4, Buffalo 3 (SO) - Leafs recover from bad start to make another

After the first, it looked like it would be a very rough night for the Leafs, outchanced badly, 12-5, and down 2-0, even managing to give up a goal to John Scott, who hadn't scored in over four years. They recovered really well, as they held Buffalo to just a single second period chance, and managed to score three goals to take the lead, including one on the powerplay in the last minute of the period.

The Leafs continued to hold the advantage through the third, but didn't manage to extend the lead, and then saw the reverse of what happened to them against the Rangers happen, as they gave up a goal against six attackers in the final minute, and were unable to score in overtime, forcing a fourth consecutive shootout. This time they managed to win, moving their shootout record to 6-4.

Despite being down by seven in chances after the opening period, the Leafs ended up edging Buffalo in the final total, mostly thanks to a dominant second period, which included five powerplay chances.

A summary of the scoring chances:

Status Overall ES
Team Toronto Buffalo Toronto Buffalo
1 5 12 5 12
2 11 1 6 1
3 7 6 7 4
4 3 2 3 2
Total 26 21 21 19

Details below.

Friday, December 27, 2013

Game 39 - NY Rangers 2, Leafs 1 (SO) - Leafs go to third straight shootout after even game

A disastrous second period, followed by a goal midway through the third, looked like it might leave Toronto with another defeat, but a late goal saw them salvage a regulation tie, earning a point and going to the shootout for a third straight game.

The opening period was pretty even, with the Leafs unable to take advantage of a couple of powerplay opportunities. The second saw things go against Toronto, with the Rangers dominating play, with a lot of powerplay time, and a strong performance at even strength. They didn't manage a goal, though, leaving the game level after two.

Whatever malaise affected the Leafs in the second, they figured things out by the final frame, outchancing the Rangers 7-3. This came despite a setback, when Miller scored 7 minutes in. The Leafs weren't able to respond until the last 90 seconds, when Nazem Kadri scored an controversial equalizer, as the play easily could have been frozen, but Kadri was able to poke the puck in. No goal was forthcoming in overtime, and they ended up falling in the shootout for the second straight game.

In the 20 minute period between 18 minutes left in the second and 18 minutes left in the third, Toronto was outchanced 7-0 5-on-5, and 15-1 overall. Other than that, the Leafs outchanced the Rangers 18-8 overall, and 15-8 at even strength, leaving the game even overall.

A summary of the scoring chances:
Status Overall ES
Team Toronto NY Rangers Toronto NY Rangers
1 7 4 4 4
2 3 14 2 7
3 7 4 7 3
4 2 1 2 1
Total 19 23 15 15

Details below.

Monday, December 23, 2013

Game 38 - Detroit 5, Leafs 4 (SO) - Bernier holds off Detroit to get the Leafs to a shootout

The Leafs' first meeting of the year with their new divisional rival, and Winter Classic opponent, went poorly, but a good rally and some strong play from Jonathan Bernier allowed the Leafs to salvage a point from the game.

Cody Franson opened the scoring for the Leafs, but after that it was one-way traffic, Detroit generating twelve of the next thirteen chances, including three goals before the end of the period, which saw James Reimer pulled and replaced with Bernier.

The Leafs managed to pull things together in the second, Phaneuf getting them back within one midway through, and a late powerplay goal from Lupul tying the game. Toronto then took the lead midway through the third, through Clarkson, but after that Detroit gave a strong push to get level, getting rewarded when Tomas Tatar scored an equalizer. The two teams were pretty content to play for the extra point after that, with Detroit ultimately getting it in the shootout.

Other than a strong push in the back half of the second period, Detroit dominated play, more than doubling up the Leafs in chances. Toronto were dependent on getting some strong play from Jonathan Bernier to hold on in order to get to the shootout.
 
A summary of the scoring chances:
Status Overall ES
Team Toronto Detroit Toronto Detroit
1 2 7 2 7
2 5 5 2 5
3 4 7 3 6
4 1 1 1 1
Total 12 20 8 19

Details below.

Saturday, December 21, 2013

Game 37 - Leafs 2, Phoenix 1 (SO) - Leafs survive Coyotes' late push to win in shootout

After falling behind early in their last two games, the Leafs were able to get out of the first period with a lead, then managed to hold on to survive to a shootout, which they won.

Toronto kept Phoenix chanceless for the last 15 minutes of the first period, in which they managed a goal, through Troy Bodie, leaving the period with the lead on the scoreboard, as well as being narrowly ahead in chances.

Phoenix nearly doubled up on the Leafs in chances while chasing the lead, winning the battle 11-6 between the ned of the first and their eventual equalizer, scored by Hanzal in the last five minutes. Toronto managed to hold on to that lead through the end of regulation, and despite three Phoenix chances in overtime, made it to a shootout.

Toronto lost the ES chance battle by 5, with most of Phoenix's advantage coming in the second period, when they weren't able to cut into the Leafs' lead.

A summary of the scoring chances:
Status Overall ES
Team Toronto Phoenix Toronto Phoenix
1 4 2 3 2
2 2 6 2 5
3 5 6 5 6
4 1 3 1 3
Total 12 17 11 16

Details below.

Thursday, December 19, 2013

Game 36 - Florida 3, Leafs 1 - Lackluster second period leads to Leafs defeat

In terms of chances, the game with Florida looks relatively even; but an early Panther lead meant they were able to sit back in the third, with Toronto not able to put up enough consistent pressure to generate more than a single goal.

Another poor start left the Leafs chasing, down by one after less than five minutes, and giving up four of the first five chances. They got level in the first by the end of the frame, but couldn't score. Another poor start in the second left them further behind, first due to a Panther powerplay, then a good shift from the Bergenheim line leading to a goal just short of the six minute mark.

Toronto managed to win the third period in chances, but with the Panthers sitting back to defend a lead, that's hardly surprising. A goal from Raymond early in the period left the Leafs with some hope of chasing down the victory, but they weren't able to score again, despite generating seven of the last eight chances.

Florida's lead through two periods was chased down by Toronto in the third, but, as mentioned, the Leafs' five third period ES chances only resulted in one goal.

A summary of the scoring chances:

Status Overall ES
Team Toronto Florida Toronto Florida
1 4 4 4 4
2 4 10 4 7
3 8 2 5 1
Total 16 16 13 12

Details below.

Tuesday, December 17, 2013

Game 35 - Pittsburgh 3, Leafs 1 - Toronto falls just short in even game

A close game between Toronto and Pittsburgh was decided by a goal from the sport's best player in the closing minutes; despite some changes in momentum over the course of the game, there wasn't much between the two sides.

A nightmare of a start for the Leafs, giving up four chances in the first forty seconds, ending up with a goal for Conner. Pittsburgh's pressure continued, as they generated eight more even strength chances, but Toronto managed to hold strong to keep the gap at a single goal.

Things went the opposite way in the second period, as after the first five minutes Toronto outchanced the Penguins 12-1 overall, and 9-1 at ES. This included a powerplay goal, as Rielly drove nicely into the Pittsburgh zone to get his first in the NHL. 

The two teams were level on chances in the third, with Toronto winning at ES, 4-2. However, it was Pittsburgh that ended up getting the goal, Crosby scoring when left alone in the slot after an icing call. The Leafs had their chances, Kulemin missing a shot on an open net and McClement hitting the post in the last few minutes.

Pittsburgh's strong first period was enough for them to win the chance battle, but only by one, as the Leafs did very well in the last two periods, and were somewhat unlucky not to come away from the game with a point.

A summary of the scoring chances:

Status Overall ES
Team Toronto Pittsburgh Toronto Pittsburgh
1 3 12 3 12
2 12 3 9 3
3 4 4 4 2
Total 19 19 16 17

Details below.

Monday, December 16, 2013

Game 34 - Leafs 7, Chicago 3 - Dominant Leafs surprise defending champs

The last game against St. Louis notwithstanding, the Leafs have had a couple of decent performances recently without reward, something that changed in a big way on Saturday, with Toronto putting up its best performance of the season to handily beat the defending Stanley Cup champions.

The first period was closely fought, with neither team generating many chances, Toronto taking the lead through Holland's powerplay marker, before a couple of Leaf penalties gave Chicago a 5-on-3, which saw Patrick Kane level the game.

After just five ES chances total in the first period, the second took a rapid turnaround, as Toronto generated five themselves in the first three minutes, including another goal, Jerry D'Amigo's first in the NHL. Chicago actually managed to equal Toronto in chances after that torrid start, but the goals went Toronto's way, with Holland getting a second eight minutes from the break, followed by a quick exchange of goals between Kane and Kulemin, and Lupul tipping one in just before the end of the period to give the Leafs some insurance.

Toronto were able to consolidate the lead fairly well in the third, not falling into the highly defensive shell that has afflicted some of their games. They were helped by an early goal by Lupul, scoring on the first NHL shot faced by goalie Kent Simpson. Brendan Saad cut the lead to three, but another quick response, this time from Kessel, reestablished a 4-goal lead. The last ten minutes were about as dull as Toronto would want, as there were just two chances in the last 1/6th of the game.

The chance margins didn't quite equal what the Leafs produced in the LA game, but given that that was chasing a lead, versus defending one against Chicago, that's not wholly unsurprising. Toronto's second period, when they generated 12 ES chances, was their best of the season, though they have surpassed the +5 margin on a couple of occasions. This was a net turnaround of 20 chances from the Leafs' first game in Chicago, which was one of their worst of the season.

A summary of the scoring chances:
Status Overall ES
Team Toronto Chicago Toronto Chicago
1 5 4 3 2
2 13 7 12 7
3 5 4 5 4
Total 23 15 20 13

Details below.

Saturday, December 14, 2013

Game 33 - St. Louis 6, Leafs 3 - Toronto's worst performance of the year thus far in St. Louis

After two decent games in which the Leafs didn't manage to earn a point, but played well against strong opposition, they got a real lesson from St. Louis. This was always going to be a tough game, facing a good team on the second night of a back-to-back after a fairly long trip, but it was difficult to predict just how poor the Leafs ended up being.

After getting one early chance, Toronto then disappeared for much of the first period, being put under heavy siege until a powerplay in the last five minutes. By that time, they'd already fallen behind by a couple of goals, and a third from Roy really left them in trouble, as well as spelling an early end for James Reimer.

A disastrous start to the second saw Stewart score almost immediately, though Nazem Kadri was able to answer quickly. The Leafs were somewhat fortunate to get out of the period down only three, as St. Louis again were heavily pressing the attack. Things settled down, with the Blues content to hold the lead in the third, and a Steen goal with 13 minutes to go seemed to be the end of it. However, a couple of Leaf goals, including a very fluky one that Pietrangelo kicked into his own net, meant that there was a little interest in the last few minutes, as the Leafs pulled the goalie to push for two goals, but ended up giving up an empty netter.

The worst game of the season for Toronto, as the Leafs were outchanced by 14 at even strength, and 16 overall. This was similar to the Chicago game, but that game at least had the benefit of never being more than a two-goal margin, while the larger gap in this one allowed the Blues to take it easy somewhat in the third, suggesting the chances might marginally under-represent their domination.

A summary of the scoring chances:

Status Overall ES
Team Toronto St. Louis Toronto St. Louis
1 4 11 3 10
2 3 10 3 8
3 3 5 2 4
Total 10 26 8 22

Details below.

Thursday, December 12, 2013

Game 32 - Los Angeles 3, Leafs 1 - An excellent performance, but a defeat against LA

Toronto outchancing both Boston and Los Angeles is a positive step for the team, despite the fact that both games ended in defeat. Part of this is due to Toronto chasing the game for substantial stretches, but this was still an excellent performance against a top quality team.

The Kings had a solid early start, and took the lead on the powerplay through Drew Doughty, but Toronto stormed back in the second half of the first period, outchancing the Kings 5-1 after the Doughty goal. The second half of the second period was a further domination, as after giving up a couple of early chances, Toronto again started to generate a lot of chances, though this time they were helped by some effective play with the extra man, including a goal from a blueliner, when Cody Franson scored on the powerplay. 

The third was another strong Leaf period, but they were unlucky, as two of the Kings' four chances ended up in their net, while they weren't able to generate a goal themselves. They were better chasing a lead than they've been at times this year, though.

A broad win in terms of chances, with the Leafs beating out LA by nine at even strength. That's tied for a season best with a game against Buffalo, not exactly an opponent of the same quality. The Kings were playing the second of a back-to-back, but this was still a strong game for Toronto, and if they'd gotten some lucky bounces, or some weaker goaltending from the opponent, they could have earned a result. Definitely a big positive in a tough stretch of the season.

A summary of the scoring chances:


Status Overall ES
Team Toronto Los Angeles Toronto Los Angeles
1 7 4 7 3
2 9 3 4 3
3 8 4 8 4
Total 24 11 19 10

Details below.

Wednesday, December 11, 2013

Game 31 - Boston 5, Leafs 2 - Leafs outchance Bruins, but suffer defeat

The Leafs have not had many games in which they have outchanced opponents this year, but they did on Sunday night, only to fall to the Bruins. The Bruins benefited from a couple of goals on shots from the blueline, which didn't count as chances, something that's been relatively rare against the Leafs this season.

Toronto narrowly won the opening period in chances, and took the lead through Peter Holland. In the second, the Leafs again won the battle of chances, but two powerplay goals, and both of the goals that weren't chances, saw them surrender the lead to go down by two.

McClement scored early in the third to pull the lead back, but Toronto wasn't all that good in chasing the game, generating just two even strength chances after the goal. They did have a couple of late chances on the powerplay with the goalie pulled, but they were already down two at that point, after Iginla scored.

Toronto outchanced Boston in every period, a rarity for the Leafs this season. The advantage in each period was slight, and, as mentioned, the Leafs didn't do a great job of chasing the deficit, which is in strong contrast to how other teams have been chasing games in which the Leafs led.

A summary of the scoring chances:

Status Overall ES
Team Toronto Boston Toronto Boston
1 6 4 5 4
2 7 7 7 5
3 8 3 4 3
Total 21 14 16 12


Details below.

Game 30 - Leafs 4, Ottawa 3 (SO) - Another third period lead lost, but victory comes in the shootout

With a large, supportive crowd backing them in Ottawa, the Leafs continued their struggles with a lead, giving up two in the third period, but managing to survive to the shootout, where they were perfect to earn a second straight win.

The two teams exchanged powerplay goals in the first, but the Senators had the better of the chances. The second period saw Ottawa's strong performance in chances continue, but the Leafs struck twice to take the lead, Kessell scoring early in the frame, and Gardiner scoring on a shot from the blue line.

Toronto generated only one chance in the final period, and none at even strength, and with Condra scoring an early goal, and Karlsson adding a powerplay marker, the game was level halfway through the period. Both sides were fairly defensive after the tying goal, as only a single chance came for either team before the end of regulation.

While there was a flurry of chances in the overtime, neither team was able to score, and the Leafs had a perfect shootout, scoring twice and getting two saves to win a second straight game.

The Leafs lost every period, but the real concern for them is that they generated just one even strength chance in the last 29 minutes, continuing a disturbing trend of third period struggles.

A summary of the scoring chances:

Status Overall ES
Team Toronto Ottawa Toronto Ottawa
1 6 10 5 8
2 4 8 3 5
3 1 8 0 5
4 3 2 3 2
Total 14 28 11 20

Details below.

Saturday, December 7, 2013

Game 29 - Leafs 3, Dallas 2 (OT) - Leafs survive horrible second half to break losing streak

The Leafs have shown serious failings while trying to hold leads in the third period this season (and of course in the playoffs last year), and while they did manage to blow a late lead against Dallas, Jonathan Bernier held them in it enough to take them to overtime, where Trevor Smith scored to get the Leafs a win.

An even first period ended without a goal, but Toronto were rewarded for some good play early in the second, Kadri scoring on his return to the lineup. Toronto could have pulled ahead again midway through the period, but from then it went downhill, with Dallas dominating chances.

The Stars scored early in the third to draw level, but Kadri put Toronto back ahead five minutes later on the powerplay. However, Toronto would manage just one more chance in the remainder of regulation, while Dallas managed seven. Part of this was due to a couple of Dallas powerplays, with the extra man eventually providing a breakthrough through Horcoff.

Dallas had a couple of chances in overtime, but it was Smith who got the winner, deflecting in a Gardiner shot in the last minute of the period.

After a solid start, Toronto winning the first period overall, the Leafs were overwhelmed, especially in the third period. The game ended up similar to games against Columbus, Pittsburgh and Montreal, making it four bad blowouts in terms of chances in the Leafs' last six games. In particular, the Leafs' inability to defend a lead, along with their struggles chasing one, continue to hurt them.

A summary of the scoring chances:

Status Overall ES
Team Toronto Dallas Toronto Dallas
1 8 7 7 7
2 6 9 4 7
3 3 10 1 5
4 1 2 1 2
Total 18 28 13 21

Details below.

Thursday, December 5, 2013

Game 28 - San Jose 4, Leafs 2 - Toronto struggle early, improve to come close to surprise

The first period seemed to signal another brutal game for the Leafs, but they recovered well, pushing San Jose close, and managing to hold them to a goal until the final couple of minutes.

San Jose dominated much of the first, but most of their chances came on the powerplay, as did their second goal. They ended the frame up 10-3 overall, but only 5-1 at even strength. Toronto had a similar second period to San Jose's first, some early powerplays letting them get some momentum, generating 11 chances, five at even strength, in the first half of the period to get level. San Jose came back to take the second half of the second, including scoring the ultimate winning goal, which banked off a Leaf in front.

Toronto weren't able to do much chasing a tying goal in the third, similar to the Montreal game. They managed three chances in the period, but only one hit the net, and one of those three came after the empty net goal had already made the lead 4-2.

Overall, the game ended up fairly even, with San Jose taking a marginal victory both in overall and even strength. This advantage all came from a eleven minute stretch from the end of the first to the middle of the second, which the Leafs won 13-2 overall, while losing the rest of the game 6-18.

A summary of the scoring chances:

Status Overall ES
Team Toronto San Jose Toronto San Jose
1 3 10 1 5
2 13 7 7 6
3 3 3 3 3
Total 19 20 11 14

Details below.

Monday, December 2, 2013

Game 27 - Montreal 4, Leafs 2 - Leafs handily beaten by 'Forever Rivals'

Toronto had one of its worst games of the season in Montreal, further extending a streak that has seen the Leafs drop four straight games. While there was a moment when it looked like Toronto might rally, they weren't able to get a strong push in the third period.

It was a spectacular start for Montreal, which saw Pacioretty generate four scoring chances on his own in the first minute when left alone for a powerplay breakaway. Even after that minute, Montreal continued to better the Leafs in terms of chances, getting a second goal late in the period through Subban.

The Leafs had a couple of chances early in the second, but Montreal took over again; Toronto held out for most of the period, but in the last five minutes surrendered a pair of goals, seemingly putting the game out of reach. Toronto then struck back from nowhere, scoring twice and bringing the game back to life. Their momentum didn't last into the third, though, as they didn't generate a chance for the first nine minutes, and only two in the first 15 minutes of the period. A couple of chances in the closing minutes didn't go in, leaving the Leafs to another defeat.

Relatively narrow losses at even strength in the first two periods weren't that concerning (though the special teams performance was poor), but what was really discouraging is how clearly the Leafs got beaten while chasing a two-goal lead in the third.

A summary of the scoring chances:

Status Overall ES
Team Toronto Montreal Toronto Montreal
1 2 8 2 4
2 5 10 5 7
3 5 8 3 8
Total 12 26 10 19

Details below.

Game 26 - Buffalo 3, Leafs 2 (OT) - Leafs lose on unlucky OT goal against Buffalo

Toronto's third game against Buffalo was a fairly even, back-and-forth encounter, settled by a strange goal that went through a gap in Carl Gunnarsson's skate en route to the back of the net.

Toronto looked solid in the first, and took an early lead through Phil Kessel, but faced a Sabre pushback in the second, with the home team getting back level in chances, and on the scoreboard, first equalizing on the powerplay, then getting another tying goal late in the period from Luke Adam.

The third was a tighter affair, neither side generating a lot of chances, but there was a good period of play in the last 6 or 7 minutes, in which either team could have won it. A late penalty against the Leafs ended up costing them, with Buffalo getting a couple of chances in regulation, then getting the winner with the penalized Ranger still working his way back into the play.

After back to back poor performances, the Leafs just managed to outchance Buffalo, though only by one, mostly on the back of that strong first period performance.

A summary of the scoring chances:

Status Overall ES
Team Toronto Buffalo Toronto Buffalo
1 7 3 7 3
2 4 10 4 7
3 5 5 3 3
4 0 1 0 0
Total 16 19 14 13

Details below.